Ho Lee Yew, it's a contest!
May 6, 2006, is perhaps the true independence day of Singapore

Everyone needs a point of view. For when the time comes, there's no way a one-sided story will do. Singapore, one of Asia's Tigers, seemed to have had that zing missing for long. The city state has the efficacy of a robot, but none of the flaws that give nations a human feel. Incredible as it may seem, this role model of efficiency hasn't had an election since 1988.

Reason? Most hilariously, because none of the opposition parties could marshal enough candidates to force one. At last, there are enough people to challenge the government in Singapore's May 6, 2006, election. It will mark the first time in 19 years that the ruling People's Action Party may not be automatically reinstated on nomination day. "We don't have a majority," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (left ) said in a television interview broadcast in Singapore on April 27, 2006. Loong's party, in the government for the last 20 months, was uncontested in 37 of the 84 parliamentary seats, according to preliminary nomination results, but in the rest there's a fight.

The People's Action Party was started by Loong's father Lee Kuan Yew, the legend who won every election since 1959. This is astonishing in a nation that wishes to join the ranks of evolved nations. The May elections will thus be Loong's first chance to win his own mandate from voters. Optimists hope it will be a key test.

Though small in size, Singapore has a big impact on the world. One of India's forward-looking politicians, Chandrababu Naidu, lists Lee Kuan Yew as one of his heroes. Such is the Tiger's reach. Many Indians live in Singapore, and non-elections could be a trifle puzzling for them after the bustle in India. Singapore has oft en been a trendsetter in the past, with laws so tough that critics at times compare them with a dictatorial regime. Singapore can afford to relax. It can enjoy the sight of debate. In the past, the opposition may have avoided contests because of the fear of losing. But clearly, winning or losing is not the point. Playing the game is paramount. Truly, May 6, 2006, is perhaps the true independence day of Singapore.

Finally, they're just royal pains in...
Kings and queens are truly a solecism; they should disband themselves

(column by Vijay Simha)

Reports from London on April 21, 2006, talked of cheering crowds, red-jacketed bandsmen in bearskin hats, and ceremonial gunfire on the 80th birthday of Queen Elizabeth II. One report mourned the lack of sunshine, apparently a wish made by the monarch. Another lined up people way past the age of 60, who spoke in awe of how the Queen was never involved in a scandal.

In another part of the world, Nepal's King Gyanendra showed how much havoc monarchy can wreak. A country was in flames, there was international opprobrium, and only then did Gyanendra relent (or did he?) by accepting the need for introducing democratic elections. Countries in the Gulf are similar case studies.

Families fattened by oil in the land refuse to accept that the world has changed. Under international pressure, the royal family of Saudi Arabia held municipal polls in February-April 2005. Women were excluded, something that happened in the US 200 years ago. Royalty in Bhutan and Japan, however, seem to be having a change of heart. The Bhutan King has set a schedule for elections when he will cede power. Japan's royal family has members marrying people called commoners.

Is royalty really needed? Th ough George Bush might consider himself one too, the covenant clearly is out that royalty comes from content of character, not by right or might. Unfortunately, royalty in today's world is a fashion statement; a discard of the bygone Imperial legacy. It really is worth no more use to society, than of churning out extremely costly national brand ambassadors. It took one French Revolution to fi nish off Ms. Royalty Marie Antoinette in the 18th century. It took one independence movement for India to wipe out its bunch of over 600 braggarts. One just hopes it doesn't take that much eff ort to wipe out this solecism in the near future.

(End of Vijay Simha column)

West Bengal moving Left or Right?
An exit poll survey reveals the true scenario of Assembly Elections

(column by Dr. Malay Chaudhuri, Chief Consulting Editor, Business & Economy)

May can be a cruel month for grandiose dreams and ambitions of political parties. It can also be a cruel wake up call for the sundry exit and opinion poll pundits who do crystal gazing in the name of psephology. If you go by the latest media reports and the exit polls tracking the Assembly Elections in West Bengal, there could be a sense of déjà vu for all those who were bombarded by the myth of India Shining and NDA winning during the 2004 General Elections. In West Bengal this time, the media and the pundits are predicting an even bigger victory for the Left Front led by CPI (M) than during the 2001 Assembly elections.

But is that a gospel that everyone should swallow without a pinch of salt? Startlingly, an independent pre and post poll survey conducted by B&E indicates something dramatically different. The independent survey clearly indicates that far from a sweep, the Left Front will struggle to get a majority in the current elections. Of course, the odds are that it will still form a government and Buddhadeb Bhattacharya will still be the Chief Minister.

But the Left Front's brute majority is slated to be reduced drastically, and the Trinamool Congress, led by Mamta Bannerjee, will display a remarkable improved performance (if not in actually going ahead and winning the elections - since the survey results only indicate the position after the first three phases, and two more are yet to go). In fact, results of the independent survey indicate that a clear pre-poll alliance between the Trinamool and the Congress could well have brought almost 30 years of uninterrupted Left rule to an end in West Bengal.

Any political analyst who has been hearing the Left leaders bitterly complaining against the 'high handed' and 'arbitrary' behaviour of the Election Commission can now put those allegations in perspective. For, this time around, it does appear as if the Election Commission is doing a masterful job of preventing the CPM and its allies getting away with scientific c rigging (For more analysis, refer to this issue's editorial note 'In West Bengal...').

And as the word about the inability of the Left cadres to do what they have been adept at for years is spreading across West Bengal, there seem to be dramatic changes in electoral behaviour of voters. The most significant of these changes is the dramatic drop in the percentages of votes polled by the Congress with each successive phase of polling. Voters seem to be coming to the conclusion that with the Trinamool giving a tough fight to the Left , it would be a waste of votes to opt for the Congress which trails far behind the Left and the Trinamool.

The independent ICMR-B&E pre and post poll survey was conducted in depth in assembly seats (including 3 in Kolkata) that gives a clear and coherent picture of what exactly is happening in West Bengal. The ICMR-B&E survey first analysed the 2001 Assembly Elections and singled out many constituencies where the Left Front had won more than 90% of the votes polled and asked voters about their true voting intentions. The results were quite revealing indeed!

Take the Bolpur Parliamentary constituency that is represented by the Lok Sabha Speaker. In the 2001 Assembly elections, the CPM polled more than 90% of the votes in most polling booths. A sample of 312 voters was asked about their true voting intentions if the elections were truly free and fair this time around. Astonishingly, just about 30% of the respondents said that they will vote for the Left Front, while 70% of the voters said that they will vote against the Left Front. Similarly, the Left had polled more than 90% votes in many booths in Barrackpore.

The pre-poll survey on a sample of 554 voters reveals that only 18% said they will vote for the Left , while 54% said that they will vote against the Left . But the fear of the voter is still visible in many constituencies across the state. For instance, in Panskura, represented by Gurudas Dasgupta, 642 voters were asked for their opinion. While 16% said they will vote for the Left , 18% said they will vote against the Left . Strangely, the rest of the voters said that they were not willing to answer any question related to their voting intentions.

Then how is the Left still going to win the elections? For one, it has a committed vote base in excess of 30% - almost touching 45% in many constituencies. Second, the opposition is fragmented and therefore anti-Left votes will be split.

The post poll exit survey conducted by the B&E team clearly shows that the pre-poll results show the extent of scientific c rigging in earlier polls. Take three constituencies: Salboni, Garbeta (East) and Garbeta (West) in Jhargram. The Left had polled more than 90% votes in virtually all booths in the three constituencies. During these elections, post poll exit surveys indicate something else. In Salboni, the Left has got 42% of the votes, while the Trinamool has got 46%. In Garbeta (East), the Left gets 45%, while Trinamool gets 42%. And, in Garbeta (West), the Left is a clear winner with 49%, while the Trinamool gets 39%. These results are for the first phase of the polls.

It gets more interesting with subsequent phases. Take Contai that went to polls during the second phase. The Left gets 39%, while the Trinamool gets 46%. Till the fi rst two phases, the Congress has managed to get more than 10% of the total votes polled. That starts changing with the third phase. In Belgachia constituency in Calcutta, the Left gets 44%, while Trinamool gets 53%...

(End of Dr. Malay Chaudhuri, Chief Consulting Editor, Business & Economy column)