Can Bush spell 'self-defense'?
Japan is as guilty as the US for attempting to arm itself; Japan's remilitarisation must be stopped

With its mounting magnitude of contribution to the global economy, Asia can no longer be accorded lesser focus in military resolutions. The most intimidating of such resolutions is probably about to unfurl in the form of open militarisation (or remilitarisation) of Japan, with the US ostensibly 'forcing' Japan to amend article nine of its Constitution (to ensure that Japan would show aggression only for self-defense). Though this move seemingly places US as a peace mongering nation, this singular event has the power to put the already vulnerable triangular relations amongst China, Japan and Taiwan in turmoil.

Japan obtained its independence in 1952, and since then has pledged to have a pacifist foreign policy. Learning a bitter lesson from World War II, it has doggedly declined to sustain an offensive military base. Neither has it subscribed with the US in the Iraq war of 1991, nor did it sign any collective security accords.

China, on the other hand, has been very busy expanding its economic prowess and enjoying its status as the new center of power. It would think twice before going into a full scale war with any country, leave alone Japan. Similarly Taiwan is probably the only place in East Asia where Japanese are whole heartedly accepted. Irrespective of what the world thinks, even trade relations between China and Taiwan have actually increased.

In truth, the whole region, left on its own (without any US intervention), poses no impending danger. But in the year 1991 (which witnessed the end of the Cold War), under the aegis of US, the process of rearmament of Japan had started taking momentum; as was reflected in a gradual increase in Japanese military budgets, and in the US legalising the deployment of military contingents.

Since 1991, Japan is being 'pressurised' by US to amend article nine. But the reality is that the US wishes to have a reason, any reason, for ensuring that Japan develops a military base. US had even gone to the extent of publicly 'threatening' Japan that unless it undertook rapid militarisation (of course for self-defense, what else!?!), it should forget the dream of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The bigger question is, under the guise of self-defense, does the US also now want 'nuclearisation' of the Japanese military? With the gleeful acquiescence of Japan to US demands, the biggest question is, whether Japan is as guilty as the US in this imbroglio?

The answers seem to be only in the affirmative; and the only rational conclusion can be Japan's apprehensions of the changing Asian power equations. By ushering militarisation, and consequent 'nuclearisation', the perpetual hostile relations between China and Japan would be reignited. Additionally, the prospects for peaceful settlements amongst Taiwan (with China) and North Korea (with South Korea), would become bleaker.

Japan's remilitarisation would only increase the possibility of the 'worst' that could happen; a nuclear war. Well, wasn't it America that had attacked Afghanistan and Iraq (and is now targeting Iran), again ostensibly for 'self-defense'? Japan, as a mature economy with a history of peace movements, should question the definition of Bush's 'self-defense' doctrine. But then, hitting below the belt, can George Bush even spell 'self-defense'?

Acidic support
Farm subsidies have to stop

Australian farmers today are struggling to make profits and find extra work. Estimates show that around 2.5 million hectares of Australia's agricultural lands are currently affected by dry land salinity. As per the report of the National Land and Water Resources Audit, the annual costs associated with dry-land salinity have crossed Australian $600 million in Western Australia and $250 million in the Murray-darling Basin.

Yet another problem faced by the farmers is that of soil acidity, which further costs farmers millions of dollars every year. The country has above 7 million hectares of acid soils, exacerbating the low income plight. The miseries don't end here, as the projections further suggest that up to 90 million hectares of Australian land will be affected by acidity; a massive figure, compared to the comparatively small 2.5 million hectares currently affected by salinity.

Amusingly, the unintended consequences of state policies have further aggravated the extant crisis. The State support over the past years to the drought-stricken farmers (to enable them to stay on the land) has only discouraged farmers from switching to more profitable professions. The State has been assisting those who would have preferred to quit otherwise. The irony is that the resources thus being spent could have been used to maintain and protect select potential-laden agricultural land.

Rather than assisting farmers in continuing the dry-land cultivation, the government should aim at providing farmers a combination of structural adjustment assistance and technical training for diversifying into more profitable sectors.

Agri-economists suggest that at the simplest level, the government should actually give financial assistance to families to plant out trees (as opposed to farming), which would enable them to retain their land. Also, to put in place sustainable agriculture practices, farmers involvement at all stages of all programs can be facilitated through participative approaches. This would curtail and check dry-land salinity and erosion. If Australia wants to retain the tag of a farm economy, then it must assess the impact of environmental factors, and urgently arrest the diminishing productivity of land.

Miserable depths
Nigeria suffers on unbelievably

Seventy percent of Nigerians are living below the poverty line. The accumulated foreign and oil reserves have proved to be of no help. The complex social and political structure has further worsened the scenario. Nigeria is unable to taste the fruits of development because of an ever increasing population and faulty strategies. As a consequence, Nigeria has witnessed several economic instabilities.

The urban poverty has increased from 9.7 million to 11.9 million. The nationwide poverty rates have increased from 10 million to 14 million. The existing income disparity and uneven distribution of wealth have created a heterogonous environment conducive to economic unrest. Furthermore, 79% of the urban poor and 95% of the rural poor have hardly received primary education.

Nigerians blame it all on the inefficient and ineffective education machinery. The major challenges faced by the poor are limited access to capital and sporadic supply of information. These problems are further coupled with lack of access to stable markets, poor infrastructure and environmental degradation.

The people of Nigeria do feel the need of being empowered and equipped with new techniques, innovations and enhanced participation. But the efforts of NAPEP (National Poverty Eradication Programme) are not sufficient as there is an immediate need and scope for strategic public private partnership. Adequate political measures need to be taken in order to strengthen the disadvantaged and make development more inclusive. Till then, the government's lofty targets of halving the proportion of people living in poverty by 2010 would remain completely unachievable, and just a Nigerian dream.

Switch in time
Global energy crisis up ahead

With a share of not more than 5% in the world's population, Americans today consume 26 percent of the world's energy. Shockingly, even as far back as in 1997, the US per capita energy consumption was 12,133 KWH of electricity, which at that time was nine times the average of the rest of the world.

The US residential energy consumption is all set to increase by 17 percent from 1995 to 2015 (US Energy Information Administration). Comparatively, more alarming is the fact that global energy consumption is expected to increase 40% to 50% by the year 2010; and global carbon dioxide emissions by 50% to 60%.

As per World Bank reports, investments worth $1 trillion are required in this decade, and $4 trillion in the next 30 years, to meet the electricity needs of developing countries alone. Perhaps, the world is as much to blame as America with respect to growing demands on global energy resources. Of immediate need is a coordinated effort by nations to handle this future crisis.

Stop giving aid
Ethiopia's aid is killing them

Guess which country is the poorest in the world? Ethiopia! Guess which country gets more foreign aid than its largest economic sector? Ethiopia! Guess which country in sub-Saharan Africa has the largest military? Ethiopia again! Prime Minister Meles Zenawi seems to be in no mood to improve.

UN had announced this year that Ethiopia requires $122 billion to feed its poor in the next ten years. Unfortunately, it is this very aid that is killing local economies. Due to free food grain aid, per capita production has dropped from 450 kgs in 1984 to less than 130 kgs now.

In a country of 77 million, half of the children born are physically challenged due to malnutriti A mere 16% make it to secondary schools; around 25,000 women die during child birth annually; about 30% of the population is infected by HIV. Zenawi, who has been continuously accused of siphoning funds away from social projects (Transparency International ranks Ethiopia a lowly 137 on the corruption index 2005), has also jailed various main opposition leaders (accusing them of treason).

In reality, the aid received by Ethiopia is considered as free annual income for the top politicians and their personal armies. Sadly, the more aid Ethiopia gets, the poorer it gets. The western world has to now stop giving money aid to Ethiopia and instead support grass root programmes directly.

A treatise on India
And on its policy incongruities, project failures, and other fortunes

FDI is being permitted in infrastructure, when our very own Infrastructure Development Finance Corporation Fund is making profits by investing in shares, rather than by investing in infrastructure projects. India is ready to import coal, despite 93 billion tonnes of recoverable coal reserve that are with it. Electricity boards are bankrupt on account of subsidies and free power.

In Andhra Pradesh, the state has waived off power bill arrears amounting to Rs.11.92 billion, and has gleefully promised free power worth Rs.4.36 billion, citing farmers' suicides. Drinking water projects are drowned on account of the notion that water should flow free. And worse is when the Delhi Jal Board privatisation is franchised without any accountability and responsibility, to the same foreign companies that have failed miserably in their commitments elsewhere.

Power sector privatization leads to creation of monopolies that overcharge consumers. Disinvestments in profitable public sector undertakings are completed to escape responsibilities of efficient management. Road projects, like the Bangalore-Mysore Expressway project, fail to materialise owing to policy meddling and political influence. India perhaps is a fortunate nation; things could have been much worse. But couldn't they have been a bit better?

Legalise porn!
The Indian government needs to rethink its tobacco policy

Congratulations! Per capita annual consumption of cigarettes in India is now 129 (as per Nation Master). According to the Indian Council of Medical Research, smoking kills around 800,000 Indians annually. Yet, claiming revenue & employment concerns, the government of India dithers in banning production of tobacco products.

As per the Ministry of Health and Welfare, the Indian tobacco industry provides employment to about 4 million and contributes revenues of Rs.70 billion. India earns another whopping Rs.10.78 billion from tobacco exports. But now the question relates to the welfare objectives of the State.

Should the government ban smoking realising that the social cause is more important than the revenue? Or should the government follow the rule of caveat emptor (let the buyer beware)? Of course, many supporters of the tobacco industry do claim that humans are intelligent enough to make informed decisions.

Is the government conveniently utilising this approach? Well, if that were the case, then one should also recommend the immediate legalisation of prostitution, gambling, child pornography, drug trafficking, and polygamy. Haven't you heard, us humans are intelligent enough to make informed decisions?

Poor no more
Private participation in micro-credit schemes is beneficial

The disastrous performance of the farm sector is starkly evident from the fact that the growth rate has dipped from 3.2% in the 80s to 2.1% during the ninth plan, and further to 1.5% in the tenth plan (Planning Commission). But it still remains the cornerstone of the economy, supporting about 58% of the population.

Evidently, even farmers are increasingly facing the hit. While rural poverty in states like Orissa and Bihar is at a pathetic 48% and 43% respectively, a massive 82% in Andhra Pradesh, 74.5% in Tamil Nadu and 65.4% in Punjab are drowning in debt (National Sample Survey 2003). This rural agony is an upshot of the institutional inability to address credit needs. Even a surfeit of measures like crop insurance schemes, and sources of institutional credit like cooperatives and banks have proved abortive.

The vital linkages implicit in the growth of the farm sector are no secret. On an average, a modest 1% growth in agriculture can lead to an additional gross income of beyond Rs.100 billion, augmenting the purchasing power of farmers (India Economy Review, 2005). Growth of the farm sector indirectly increases employment in agro industries, thereby boosting demand.

Of recent interest to India has been the astounding success of Dr. Mohammed Yunus run Grameen Bank's micro-credit schemes in Bangladesh, which are disbursed only to women, and for specific small scale projects. Though RBI still does not have a standing policy on micro-credit lending, the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard) did initiate such a scheme; unfortunately only for SHGs (Self Help Groups) and not for the general public.

But more promisingly, in November 2005, the Small Industries Development Bank of India announced the allocation Rs.5.27 billion through micro-credit to almost 2.2 million poor people. Coincidentally, even ICICI Bank has announced the setting up of a joint venture with Grameen Foundation USA, called Grameen Capital India. For once, India seems to be following the right path in micro-credit.

Mafia Inc.
PDS needs procedural reforms

Rs.3.58 billion is the total estimated value of corruption in the Indian Public Distribution System (PDS) according to a recently released study of NCAER (National Council for Applied Economic Research). Almost 15 million households claimed to have paid bribe during the last one year. The states with high poverty incidence have shown up to 80% corruption incidents. Almost 60% of the households using PDS have faced unavailability of ration at fair price shops. Inquiries suggest that in some instances, depot holders claimed to not have received rationed kerosene at all. But many continued to get sufficient supplies, which they further sold in the black market at more than double the PDS price. On an average, those who bought kerosene from the open market paid around 44% more, compared to 'fair prices'. This means that all the subsidies on kerosene are basically income for black market operators. Subsidies are ergo neither benefiting the poor, nor are encouraging fair prices. The present level of demand for PDS kerosene in some states exceeds the supply by 10%. This figure is more pronounced as 38.6% of the subsidised kerosene sold in 2004 actually did not reach the beneficiary. If one were to analyse, the fair price of kerosene is Rs.10.50 per litre, while the retail price of diesel is Rs.26. This huge differential has encouraged the petroleum mafia to keep diverting kerosene to petrol pumps that brazenly sell adulterated fuel. The killing of the Indian Oil employee P. Manjunath in Uttar Pradesh reveals how far the petroleum mafia can go to protect its wide turf. The fact is, unless the government undertakes urgent and effective steps to identify the kerosene diversion culprits, and punish them swiftly, the petroleum mafia could even emerge as a strategic threat to the nation's security.