Chinks in the king's armour!
Koizumi's gamble to call snap polls is going to change the face of democratic process in Japan

Is a shake-up imminent in Japanese politics for the first time in the post second world war era? That's the question that has been triggered off in the minds of many people by a virtual revolt in Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over a move to privatise the post office system in the country.

Trouble erupted after as many as 37 LDP members either stayed away from voting on or voted against the privatization move in the House of Councillors, the upper house of the Japanese Diet earlier this month. Picking up the gauntlet, the prime minister decided to go in for a snap poll, staking his political future.

But it is the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) that is elated over the decision since it sees in these elections a reasonable chance of coming to power by dethroning Koizumi's LDP that has ruled continuously for 50 years; but for a small gap in the 1990s. In fact, it is the LDP that not only presided over Japan's recovery from military defeat, but also oversaw its phenomenal economic success during the 1960s and '70s.

So are changing international realities of the post Cold War era forcing changes in the Japanese political system by finally bringing in a two-party or multiparty democracy? That the Japanese prime minister is bent upon forcing the issue is apparent from his edict that no LDP member of the dissolved lower house who voted against the postal privatisation bill would be allowed to contest the coming elections on an LDP ticket. At the same time, the LDP has cleverly kept the door open for the rebels in case they win and want to rejoin the party, a move by which it hopes to neutralise the leaders of the breakaway group. It has already succeeded in putting a number of those who voted against the bill in a dilemma about whether to return to the party-fold or 'rebel'.

There is, however, a China factor in Japanese domestic politics as well. The Chinese are not too pleased with Koizumi who has refused to go the whole hog in admitting Japanese guilt for World War Two atrocities in China. But inside Japan, there is growing public opinion in favour of a more conciliatory approach towards China; and the LDP rebels are hopeful of exploiting this feeling. They have been careful to maintain equidistance between the LDP and the DPJ and are hoping to win a sufficient number of seats to play the role of kingmakers after the elections.

It is the Japanese democratic process that is certain to change forever for the first time in post-war years, with in-fighting, horse-trading, and power politicking expected to be seen at levels like never before. Unless of course the ruling party LDP can discover a way of dealing with changes in the international scenario, as it did when its main ally US reopened diplomatic relations with China during the Nixon years.

No Moses to move them out
Israel must give up control of sea and air space, apart from land

After years of pushing forward, the Israelis have finally taken one small step back. This has come in the shape of Israeli settlers being evicted from Gaza by none other than Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, the man who had been an ardent advocate of settlement. Withdrawing the settlers is part of a plan agreed upon by United States, United Nations, Russia, European Union, and of course the Palestinians and Israelis.

For all the sympathy that the Israeli opposition hoped to gain due to the forcible eviction of Jewish settlers, the kid glove treatment given by Israeli security forces to the resisting settlers has put paid to these opposition hopes. Though the eviction was shown live on Israeli television, the groundswell of public anger against Sharon expected by opponents never materialised. The successful emptying of most of Gaza's settler Jewish population has not only been a domestic political triumph for the prime minister, but is also sure to fetch accolades from abroad. Many are already talking about the Nobel Peace Prize.

Naturally, the Israeli withdrawal of settlers could not have taken place unless it was pressured into doing so by the US, which has its own calculations in not permitting the Palestinian issue to fester any longer. The move has already won approval from a number of Islamic nations, which are marked by considerable anti-US feelings. Besides, after the removal of Saddam Hussain from Iraq, the US position in Middle East has improved substantially for it to be confident of securing a situation favourable to itself. In addition, the Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is much less inimical to the West, than his predecessor Yasser Arafat who died last year.

Hopefully, Israel will evict its settlers in the West Bank soon, so that there is a landmass where the Palestinian state can eventually be set up as envisaged. But till the Israelis are willing to actually give up control of land, sea and air space in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, evictionof settlers will only gain brownie points.Israel now must go the whole hog.

He loves me! He loves me not!
A new senator's opposition could well spell doomsday for Howard

Australians just got their most powerful government in a quarter of a century. They secured this feat as the ruling Liberal-National coalition achieved majorities in both houses of the national parliament. But the paradox is that cracks appeared in the coalition as soon as Prime Minister John Howard thought that the time was ripe for going ahead with selling its stake in the national telecom carrier Telstra.

The Liberal-National coalition won six new seats in the senate in last October, but it was only in early August that the new members were sworn in. Howard believed that now onwards it would be smooth sailing for his government. But Barnaby Joyce, a newly elected Senate member from the National Party had other ideas. No sooner had he been sworn in that he announced his decision to oppose the sale of government stakes in Telstra, unless the government set aside funds for better telecommunication and internet networks in rural Australia. Howard and other senior liberals have insisted that the first loyalty of all coalition MPs was towards the joint party, meaning thereby that they should get behind the government's Telstra sale decision. Joyce has, however, countered that MPs had an allegiance towards their constituents as well, whose interests must be safeguarded. The National Party MP has been backed by his party chief as well.

Howard has a straightforward choice; promise now, deliver later. Howard cannot back away from the upcoming Telstra sale; at the same time, ignoring a most valid demand for improving rural telecom infrastructure would be perfidy. Ignoring Joyce and company would surely snowball into a mass opposition that could also lead to Howard's popularity ratings dipping amongst already emotional anti-Telstra-sale voters. Howard can do nothing, but learn to be more accommodative of the smaller parties, if he wants to preserve the government this time.

A modern day Kautilya
Low key and low profile, Ramesh stands out as a Congressman with evidently unique qualities

All the classics on India have been written by men who have never visited India - Mill, Marx and Max Mueller," is one of the many witty one-liners that this backroom Congressman has preserved for posterity. He is also credited with another one-liner after former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had both his knees operated upon: "Now that the left knee and the right knee are right, it is time for Advaknee!" Of course, as the profile description would have made it obvious, the remarks were made by Jairam Ramesh, Secretary of the Economic Affairs cell of Congress under Sonia Gandhi. Carrying on the 'technocrat' tradition of Rajiv Gandhi, Ramesh has been a Congress back room boy who means many things to many people in the party, as well as within the UPA government.

Though a member of the Rajya Sabha, Ramesh has preferred not to undergo the trials and tribulations that are the staple diet of a politician who has to keep going back to the electorate for winning elections and remaining relevant. For that matter, another technocrat of the Rajiv Gandhi era who never contested elections is Sam Pitroda, who is notorious for acting as the catalyst for the telecom revolution in India.

Though low profile, Ramesh seems to have run up a remarkable bio data. Most pundits and wannabe policy makers know that Jairam Ramesh played a crucial role in drafting the Common Minimum Programme that is metaphorically nothing less than the coat-of-arms of the UPA government. Less well known is Ramesh's role as a strategist for the Congress party during the 'India Shining' General Elections of 2004 where Sonia Gandhi surprised the world, perhaps herself too, by coming in to power. During this particular campaign, Ramesh played a key role in sending political messages through advertising and word of mouth that demolished the hype surrounding the BJP 'India Shining' positioning statement.

But coming back to the present, Ramesh's core competence lies in ensuring that the coalition partners are kept controlled, without jeopardising original objectives. In one such case where the Left opposed privatisation of Navratna PSUs, Jairam Ramesh negotiated their tacit approval by introducing a resolution that no PSU would be privatised without Parliamentary approval.

In another interview with Asian Age about the recent all-India ban on CPI (Maoists), Ramesh enunciated that the ban in no way meant that peace dialogue doors had been closed with Naxalites, even though dialogue "is something only tactical and it is not part of the threepronged strategy." A purer exponent of the word 'diplomat' perhaps could not have been found.

Ramesh is one of those rare technocrat Congressmen who has avoided the tough choices of the period of Emergency during 1975-77. Passing out from IIT, Mumbai in 1975, Ramesh spent the next two years at the Carnegie Mellon University studying public management. It is said that during the Rajya Sabha sessions, while other MPs - more or less overawed by his intellect - banter around, Ramesh keeps utilising his laptop to make the most out of any spare moment. Ramesh seems to relish the back room profile. And one of his one-liners seems to specifically describe his belief in the Indian social, political and economic systems per se: "LPG - liberalisation, privatization and globalisation: Hopefully, it's not all gas." We surely hope not...

Book Marks

• 1975: Passed out from the IIT, Mumbai
• 1975-77: Public Management at Carnegie Mellon University
• 1977-78: Studied technology policy, economics, engineering and management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 1983-85: Entrusted with the task of analyzing the energy policy
• 1987-89: Carried out the implementation of technological missions
• 1992-94: Acted as an Advisor to the Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission
• 1996-98: Acted as an advisor to the Finance Minister
• 2004 (May): Helped the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to frame the National Common Minimum Programme and was a part of the election strategy team

It's a man's world, woman
Parliamentary reservation for women remains a distant dream

Men in most political parties develop cold feet whenever the question of reserving seats for women in Parliament comes up. While in fact this happens as they feel a threat to their positions of power, most political parties have, over the last decade or so, also developed the fine art of stalling reservation and at the same time deriving political capital from the issue. They do all this without openly stating their opposition to the proposal.

No party dares openly oppose reservation of seats for women. But they adopt stratagems that have the end result of shooting down the proposals. The last time around it was the Samajwadi Party that made political capital by demanding that it was in favour of reserving a further third (within the current existing proposal of one third reservation for women) for women belonging to the backward castes. Other parties saw that if implemented, this would largely benefit the Samajwadi Party, which has its support base among the backward castes. But none of them was willing to take the risk of openly opposing the proposal. So all of them allowed matters to reach a stalemate till the bill was shelved. This time it is the turn of the Congress. Apparently addressing the apprehensions of male MPs, the party has suggested that instead of a third of the existing seats being marked out for women, the size of the Lok Sabha itself should be increased by a third to about 725 and all the freshly created seats be reserved for women.

While Congress leaders unctuously point out that an increase in the number of Lok Sabha seats would also meet the long-due need of improving the representation of a vastly larger population, in fact the Congress proposal is aimed to help it reach as close as possible to the majority mark during the next general elections with the support of women voters.

Unfortunately, it seems certain that given the complexities involved in the new proposal, it would again prove to be a non-starter. Reservation of seats for women can happen when parties get rid of their tendency to play politics. But didn't we hear somebody say that old habits die hard?

Quarrelling seven sisters
The North Eastern states need to resolve infighting issues together

The North East comes into prominence once a year - when Independence Day comes around. And not because the people of that region are particularly happy about the occasion; rather, just the opposite is true. They are sure that any adverse activity on their part during this part of the year is sure to attract attention on the national stage. But this year, in addition to the usual calls for boycotting of Independence Day, another factor has raised its head in this trouble torn backward region; and that is infighting among the North Eastern "seven sister" states as democratically elected politicians play to the galleries of ethnically divided voters.

The victim this time has been Manipur, which has been blockaded by Naga students of the state, supported by student organisations in neighbouring Nagaland. Matters came to a head on June this year when Okram Ibobi Singh, the Congress chief minister of Manipur, declared that the day would be observed as State Integration Day. But this squabble between the two North Eastern neighbours shows that insurgency and lack of development in the region is not just the result of neglect by the centre but also quarrels among the various ethnic groups. Added to this, is New Delhi's penchant to treat the insurgency as a law and order problem. It is therefore necessary that the North Eastern states set aside their differences and get together to address the main problems that have bedevilled the region. Sisters, there's no brother who'll help.